Talk:Ore Smelter

8 lime 8 ore: you now have 8 ore with a 9% chance to turn into a bar each.

This means if you do this an infinite amount of times, for every 100 operations you get 9 bars per slot * 8 slots = 72 bars. In other words, the average chance to get a bar per smelting is 72 / 100 * 100% = 72%.

Any information about getting 1+ bars is useless, as it does not take into account the value of getting e.g. 10 bars at the same time.

Stats don't work that way I'm sorry. Go look up Decision tree's and probability before you make changes to the wiki you don't understand.

Average doesn't mean what you seem to think it means.

The change of getting 1 or more iron ingots per trial is calculated as follows:

100% - Probability of getting nothing.

Probability of getting nothing is calculated as follows:

Probability of failing ^ Number of trials.

so to calculate the change of failing 8 times in a row when you have .91 ^ 8.

This gives you 47.03% and 100% - 47.03% gives you 52.97% which is the change of getting 1 or more iron ingot if you use 8 of each. --Sparkky 15:31, 5 May 2012 (CDT)